It is a difficult question because the future never repeats identically. But here are some guidelines on how to approach this in a rational way:
- You start with what risks each bank is exposed to, and how they correlates with whatever caused the system-wide financial crisis. Last time it may have been subprime mortgages, but the next time if will be something else
- You then look at how well prepared each bank is, in terms of capital and liquidity. E.g., how do they rank in the stress tests in terms of residual capital after an adverse scenario. This step is correlated with Step 1. E.g., a bank heavily exposed in oil and gas will have already weakened buffers.
- You finally need to consider whether they are more or less likely to be bailed-out (and with what conditions for non-insured deposits).